Why The Third Base Position In Blackjack Matters Less Than You Think

Meta Title: The third base position in blackjack gets less priority than other seats at the table. Here’s why.

Meta Description: The third base position in blackjack is thought to influence the dealer’s odds of busting. But card counting, poor plays by other players and pure chance have a bigger impact.

The third base position in blackjack is one of the most coveted seats at the table. Known as “first base” at some casinos, the player sitting here is the last to act before the dealer reveals their down card and plays their hand. Because of this, the third base position is often referred to as the anchor position.

Many blackjack players believe that the person sitting at third base heavily influences the dealer’s chances of going bust. The logic is that if the third base player makes poor playing decisions, they can negatively impact all other players at the table by causing the dealer to make better hands. While this dynamic exists, its actual impact is far less than you probably think.

Why Third Base Gets More Attention Than Other Positions

There are a few reasons why third base garners so much attention compared to other positions at a blackjack table:

• It’s the last position to act before the dealer, seeming to give it extra influence.
• Poor plays are very visible since they happen right before the dealer acts.
• The dealer’s anchor position is easy to blame when the table has a bad run.
• Card counters often sit at third base, skewing perceptions of its impact.

Because of these factors, there is an outsized tendency to focus attention and blame on the third base position. Platforms like Richard Casino. even have a name for players who sit here with little blackjack skill – they’re called “hit and run players.”

Three Reasons Why Third Base Has Less Influence Than Believed

While the player at third base does impact the dealer’s chances of busting, several other factors have a much bigger influence on the game.

1. Impact Of Other Players’ Decisions

Most analysis of third base focuses solely on this position’s playing decisions. But the decisions of all players at the table impact the dealer’s odds of busting, not just the player at third base.

Each hand that is played influences subsequent hands. A player taking an unnecessary hit might cause the dealer to bust on one hand. But it could just as easily cause the dealer to make a better hand on the next round.

Across hundreds and thousands of hands, the playing decisions of all players contribute almost equally to the dealer’s overall odds. Singling out just the third base position overstates its influence.

2. Card Counting And Shuffling Frequency

Skilled card counters track the relative composition of high and low cards remaining in the deck. Using this count, they place bigger and smaller bets accordingly to take advantage.

When card counters occupy third base, they can heavily influence the dealer’s bust rate when there is a high proportion of 10s and aces remaining. This gives the false impression that third base itself drives the dealer’s odds.

In reality, the power comes from card counting skill, not the third base seat. And frequent shuffles mitigate even expert card counters today.

3. Pure Chance

Ultimately, blackjack odds are dominated by the pure randomness inherent in the deal. No matter how perfectly the entire table plays their hands, chance still dictates whether or not the dealer busts on any given round.

In the chaos of randomness, attempting to isolate a single position’s impact on the dealer is mostly futile. In the long run, the dealer’s bust rate gravitates toward the expected probability dictated by chance, regardless of who sits at third base.

Should You Avoid Third Base?

While the third base position doesn’t warrant all the attention or blame it receives, that doesn’t mean it can’t impact your blackjack experience.

If the pressure or scrutiny bothers you, avoiding third base may be wise. Player collusion and rudeness toward third base decisions still happen fairly regularly.

But if you know basic strategy well and don’t mind an occasional barb from frustrated players, sitting at third base can be enjoyable. You’ll typically get to play more hands per hour at third base since action comes to you first after the deal.

Just be prepared for unwarranted criticism if the table goes south, even when it’s no fault of your own. Whether you sit at third base or not, remember that blackjack always has been and always will be, a game of chance.